Egypt, June 23rd 2025,

The US joins Israel on Iran ! Investors still seem to keep a cool head on Egypt !

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Egypt, North Coast ! Qatar’s new development ?

The US joins Israel on Iran ! Investors still seem to keep a cool head on Egypt !

Now,

It is still interesting to see Europe trying to mediate in this new conflict and to hold talks with Iran to find a way out of this new crisis. The last time Israel cooperated truly with Europe was from the mid 1950’s to 1960’s . In the 50’s with what became the Suez Crisis where at first Israel and France later joined by England conspired to an attack on the Suez Canal to recover it after it was nationalized and to remove Nasser ; the French were angry as Nasser supported the liberation movement in Algeria while Israel wanted to reopen the Straits of Tiran and the Gulf of Aqaba and remove the Egyptian naval blockade.

The US were furious as at the same time Moscow was crushing the Hungarian revolution in Budapest. Bad timing for the two former colonial powers ! But it was already a military success for Israel. Later France would provide military supplies and nuclear plants but that stopped in 1967.

Since then , the voice of Europe has vanished . Israel will listen to the US, got scared once or twice by Moscow but Europe ! Who even knows the Foreign Minister of the EU ! 17 years ago , soon after leaving Downing Street , Tony Blair was named head of the Middle East Peace Quartet , an organization based in Jerusalem consisting of the US, EU, Russia and UN, with the goal to issue a Road map for peace . This Middle East Peace quarter produced nothing except give time for Tony Blair to build his Blair Associates Consultancy ( a trickle compared to Trump Inc) .

Netanyahu will have just contempt for anything coming out of Geneva and Europe. And then Trump ! We know Trump’s fondness for Europe ! Unless the idea is presented by King Charles in full regalia, no chance ! But now, all this is behind us after the US strikes on several nuclear targets in Iran. Local reports in Israel commenting that with the attack on Iran and Trump behind him, Netanyahu has resurrected in the polls in Israel and enjoys a jump in popularity . He could win the elections if they were run now without the support of his extreme right wing parties. He is the big winner so far, he is saving his legacy.

Now, Egypt,

Egypt – EU : better slow than never. The European Parliament approved the final reading of the decision to grant Egypt the second tranche of the Macro Financial Assistance ( MFA) package , worth 4 bn euros. Once the European Council votes on it in the coming days, disbursements will start to be processed !

Going in the right direction : Egypt’s tax revenues have surged by 36 % over the past year, or 500 bn EGP. The result is driven by strong engagement from taxpayers following recent tax facilitation initiatives. This was achieved without imposing any new financial burdens and reflect a good start to rebuild trust and “ fostering a genuine partnership with the business community “. The IMF should be pleased.

Talking about the IMF again, Egypt is in the final stages of talks with the Washington based institution to complete the 5^th review of the 8 bn $ Extended Fund Facility. There are talks that the IMF will issue a combined report covering the 4^th and 5^th review and it should be completed before the end of the fiscal year, end of June 2025. The facility runs until September 2026 : it was mentioned that Egypt would not ask to renew or extend it but now with the recent escalation of tensions in the region, they might request an extension till early 2027.

Finally, Qatar will invest 3.5 bn $ in a touristic project along the Mediterranean coast. It could be signed before the end of 2025. Potentially 3.5 bn $ with 1 bn $ at signature. No precise location found yet. Anyone knows, please share !

In its fight to cut subsidies and to align fuel, diesel , gas prices to cost to recovery, Egypt’s plans up until a week ago were somehow facilitated by lower energy prices . Now not only energy prices are rising due to the Iran-Israel-US aerial conflict but the country will also have to import a higher number of LNG cargoes to alleviate energy shortages. The shorter this situation lasts the less effect it will have on inflation, inflation data that came out recently above estimates mostly due to food & beverages as well as housing related costs, that includes fuel. It might well push the Central Bank to hit on the pause for future rate cuts.

Despite the best efforts of Egypt’s government to improve the economic situation domestically, over the past five years, some major events are making the works more complicated : Covid, Ukraine , Gaza and now Iran !