Flash – Middle East FX, June 13th 2025 ,

Netanyahu’s threats were not empty words ! GCC and Egyptian markets react !

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We aim here to bring you regular updates on factors and events impacting financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa region with an accent on foreign exchange and rates.

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It was 89 seconds a few months ago !

Netanyahu’s threats were not empty words ! GCC and Egyptian markets react !

A short word ! Get your priority right ! or go to the easiest ! European large cities, London, Paris are all getting a pretty bad rap in term of security. London is a place I know well and much better than Paris. I commented at length on personal safety, phone theft, bicycle theft, car theft etc. The Metropolitan Police is supposedly allocating plain clothe officers to tackle the problem but not much result so far.

Another place where the Met is much more efficient : speeding fines. In many areas and even wider roads , the speed limit is 20 miles an hour. If there is not traffic, you need to put cruise control on, otherwise you can’t stay under. So what must happen happened, I was flashed at 22 ! I got the ticket home in London in a week ! Efficient ! So the Police goes down the road of least resistance : speed ticket. You can’t fight, can’t argue, you pay a fine , go to re-education class or lose some points and get a higher insurance premium. It’s easy, less risky than catching thieves but won’t make London safer !

Now,

The writing was on the wall with the US’s comments past days that Israel was ready to attack Iran and would do the job alone.

It is worth reminding that since Israel’s Declaration of Independence in 1948 , they have never felt constrained to act by anybody not even their closest allies. Whatever we might think of it, more than two thousand years of history since the destruction of the 2^nd Temple by the Romans have taught the country and its people that they can only count on themselves for their defense and will do whatever they think is right for them.

The IDF has put into action what they had been warning for over 20 years. They view Iran gaining nuclear weapons as a mortal threat and for good measures add that Iran’s missiles could reach Europe !

Since acquiring and developing a nuclear reactor in the 60’s with the help of France, Israel does not admit nor deny having nuclear weapons and one of the arguments used to tone down the US’s insistence for independent verifications was that Israel would not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East. The Nixon administration was satisfied with that. That was Cold War era.

The US hasn’t assisted apparently, they were aware of the plans though. But it is just a fig leaf : the jets, the bombs are made in the US. Worse comes the worse they will have to lend assistance.

Israel has been targeting not only military and nuclear installations but also top commanders of the IRGC, Iran Revolutionary Guards, and nuclear scientists . That’s another level of attack and Iran responded by saying it was a “ declaration of war “ !

Iran has obviously retaliated with scores of drones and missiles.

Side effect : airports closed, flights suspended and flights re-routed . Many flights from the Gulf pass over the immense landmass of Iran .

Try to fly for the weekend anywhere in Central Asia or to Caucasian countries ( I highly recommend Georgia, Armenia, Uzbekistan ): avoiding to fly over Iran or in the airspace connecting Israel to Iran will double if not more your flying time !

After the first salvo on both sides, difficult to say what will happen next. I know nothing in all that but if we are to believe experts, Iran had the time to dig their bunker facilities deep underground ( remember Top Gun 2 !!) and so one round of bombing might not do the job. And as to be expected the GCC’s reaction to the attack is very negative ! Instability in the region is not desired !