Hello everyone !
Welcome to Notes & Thoughts !
We aim here to bring you regular updates on factors and events impacting financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa region with an accent on foreign exchange and rates.
We also aim to bring reflections on certain topics and subjects, close to recent events, which we think are worth stopping on .
Thank you for your attention !
Whatever the events, whatever what is happening around the world, it is always interesting and important to step back and get some perspectives.
October 7th 2023 didn't start on that day ! It is a whole chain of reactions and counteractions, roads and rivers that started with Adam and Eve, Noah's ark, Abraham sacrificing Isaac, Moses crossing the Red Sea and we can go on or we can shorten the time span.
Several years ago, President Bush included Iran in the Axis of Evil countries. On their side , Iranian authorities and the Ayatollahs when talking about the US or Israel end their speeches with " Death to Satan ( Big one the US, small one Israel ), Death to America " and all ! Someone was commenting that you rarely hear " Long Live Iran ".
Iran and Persia have been here for a very long time. Persia reached its territorial height in the 6th century BC under Cyrus the Great. It was Cyrus who allowed the exiled Babylonian jews to return to Israel and rebuild their temple. Where was Bush then ? Time has flowed for many centuries and in the late 19th , Iran was under the dual influence of the Russian Empire and British Empire, fighting for influence in the region, part of the Great Game. Iran was an easy prey as was the Ottoman Empire to the influence of western powers and many concessions-capitulations as called at the time. In the 1890's, there was the Persian Tobacco Protest ! For a small sum of money, a monopoly over the production, sale and export of tobacco was given to a certain Mr Talbot by the Emperor .Long story short, it didn't got down well.
In 1901, William d'Arcy , a British speculator , won a concession to explore for oil in Iran, it was discovered in 1908 and in 1914, the British government gained direct control over Iran's oil industry as the British Navy was shifting from coal to oil under Churchill's pressure, strategic thinking for the Navy. In 1933, a long term agreement gave a flat rate , per ton of crude exported, to Iran and no rights to control its exports. By the early 50's, England would get 90 % of all oil revenues to Iran's 10 %. Popular pressure pushed the Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq to nationalize the industry . The British was pushing for his removal, Iran’s oil revenues were too important for them to ignore shortly after the end of WWII but the Americans under President Truman were pushing for a diplomatic solution. When Eisenhower came to power in 1953 , it all changed as the US was seeing the hand of Moscow behind Iran’s Prime minister . He was deposed in a coup orchestrated by the US and UK in 1953 all the while the Shah fled the country.
A new agreement followed, a bit more equitable, the Shah came back and became the US's closest ally in the region, built good relationships with Israel ( oil ) until repression, corruption and all brought Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 back to Iran. The US Embassy hostage crisis was triggered by Iranians' suspicions that the Shah's alleged cancer was made up to allow him to go the US ( he really had cancer but kept it secret ).
Another hot topic to say the least on Iran's side: the US kept quiet while Saddam Hussein was using chemical weapons against Iran during the 1980-88 Iraq-Iran war and were giving him satellites' images of Iran and armament.
Not to mention Bush's wars. So yes , many reasons for the very deep mistrust and distrust of Iran towards the US . It doesn't justify or condone Iran's behaviour today but it brings a different light to things. Always need to listen to the two sides of the story !