Middle East FX, June 27th 2025,

Recent events show oil and geopolitical factors are not any more the main drivers for GCC currencies. Kuwait, more issuances coming. Curve pulling higher !

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Recent events show oil and geopolitical factors are not any more the main drivers for GCC currencies. Kuwait, more issuances coming : curve pulling higher !

Interesting and educative conversation. Twenty minutes haircut, Pakistani hairdresser, very nice guy, open minded and curious. Chat on actual events, Iran, Israel, Trump, nuclear bombs. And he mentions Hiroshima, he doesn’t have the context but he knows the Americans dropped them. Something Putin likes to emphasize that for international consumption . Somehow the conversation drifted to the Europe of the time, he mentions Hitler, and again surprise , he thought Hitler was American ! We think that knowledge of all this should be universal. But why : Hitler, Hiroshima , the Holocaust are not part of Pakistan ‘s story and history; they hear about events though . Among US teens , accurate knowledge about the Holocaust dropped to 50 % and will fall further with the last survivors. It is most likely the same in Europe where it happened. How can we make decision about the future if we don’t know about the past . Let’s repeat Mark Twain’s quote : “ history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes !”

Now, GCC FX,

Did they really write the script before hand ? Or did they use AI ? From the 60 days given by Trump to Iran to sign a deal and Netanyahu’s attack just before the end of deadline. From Israel’s intense bombardments and targeting of high ranking IRGC generals and nuclear scientists and Iran’s missile barrage in retaliation to Trump’s delaying bluff and “obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. To Trump’s admonishment of Israel !

For most in the trading community, apps and websites showing in real time maritime traffic around the Strait of Hormuz / Red Sea and air space traffic / closure were the best indicators and signals that Iran’s response was just for the show and not even for domestic consumption . The oil market reacted first and aggressively with a sharp fall. We are very far from the oil price shock of the 1973 embargo !

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